The first Black Friday ad is out and consumers are already beginning to wonder about the Thankgiving sales this year! So we have compiled our predictions for the expected release dates where key online and store retailer Black Friday ads will be leaked or released and become public in 2019. The Black Friday ad 2019 release date predictions included below relate to: Harbor Freight, Kohls, JCPenney, Target, Staples, Dicks, Macys, Office Depot, Walmart, Best Buy, Sears, Bass Pro Shops, Microsoft, Bed Bath & Beyond, Amazon and GameStop. We will save the speculation about which ads will contain what for another post!
There are a number of factors which may change when the deals actually become public which are worthy of note. These include early Black Friday deal announcements, unexpected leaks to the media, and early postal carrier deliveries. There are also two broad trends that are shaking things up for retailers this year, including the short Christmas shopping season, the extension of the shopping season with pre-Black Friday sales, and the pressure on retailers to deliver more against their online competition.
Here are when we expect them this year based on these trends and past years including when their 2018 Black Friday ad came out:
Harbor Freight – ALREADY OUT
Harbor Freight has historically been the first Black Friday ad to be released and it was once again out by Mid-October. It was actually beat by the QVC Black Friday ad this year but that didn’t impress sites tracking the Thanksgiving deals. Harbor Freight usually has very similar products/prices in its ad from year to year and it is not a particularly good barometer of the upcoming sales. What to expect from the Harbor Freight ad? Tools and hardware.
Kohls Black Friday Ad – NOVEMBER 1 (estimated)
They have had some of the most buzzworthy sales over the past few years because the addition of Kohl’s Cash on top of the Black Friday deals means that other retailers often are not even close to competing against them on discounts. Of course, that assumes that you get back into the store to buy something with them in the weeks after you receive the “cash”. We expect that they will continue to drive the season by an early ad and more pre-Black Friday deals. What to expect from the Kohls ad? Home goods, kitchen appliances, vacuum cleaners, clothing and jewelry.
JCPenney Black Friday ad – NOVEMBER 4 (estimated)
Will JCP use the Thanksgiving holiday season to try to reinvigorate sales this year? The company has seen declining sales and appears based on media reports to be on the verge of renegotiating some of its debt burden with creditors, so this Christmas is going to be a critical time for it to demonstrate its viability as a company to shareholders and creditors. Expect them to try to lead the season and get people excited to return to a JC Penney store over Christmas. What to expect from the JCPenneys ad? Electronics, cookware, and small kitchen appliances,
Target Black Friday ad – NOVEMBER 6 (estimated)
Last year the Target ad became public on November 1. We are predicting it will be a bit later this year because Thanksgiving is so late in the calendar but still much earlier than it was released two or three years ago simply because of the general trend toward early Black Friday sales. What to expect from the Target ad? Clothing, electronics, home goods and more.
Staples Black Friday ad – NOVEMBER 8 (estimated)
These office supply and computer deals have historically become public during the first full week of November. With the Thanksgiving Day falling a bit later in the calendar this year, we are betting that it falls later in the week rather than earlier. What to expect from the Staples ad: Office supply items like office chairs and electronics like laptops and printers.
Dicks Sporting Goods Black Friday ad – NOVEMBER 9 (estimated)
Based on past years, the release date will be between November 8th and 12th. It is basically a coin toss and our coin landed on heads rather than tales, so we went with an earlier date this year. What to expect from the Dicks ad: Sports gear for skiing, golf, fishing, etc., and athletic apparel like running shoes.
Macys Black Friday Ad – NOVEMBER 10 (estimated)
The ad for this leading department store has historically been much later but last year it came out very early in November. We will see whether that was a winning strategy which is repeated or falls to the wayside. Since Macys stock has been on the slide this year and experts are predicting the shortened Christmas shopping season (due to a late Thanksgiving) will make sales (in terms of revenue, not deals) more difficult, we expect to see the ad out a bit earlier than it has historically been found in the public. What to expect from the Macys ad? Clothing and home goods such as kitchen appliances.
Office Depot and Office Max Black Friday Ads – NOVEMBER 10 (estimated)
Expect these two retailers to follow shortly behind Staples with the announcement of their Black Friday deals. What to expect from the OfficeMax ad? Office supply items and electronics like laptops and printers.
WalMart Black Friday Ad – NOVEMBER 11 (estimated)
As the leader in everyday low prices, they aren’t going to want the details of their sales known too early by other retailers or they can be copied. About three weeks early seems just about right here. What to expect from the Walmart ad? Low prices on electronics like 4K TVs, computers, the iPhone, toys and more.
Best Buy Black Friday Ad – NOVEMBER 11 (estimated)
Best Buy has already started guaranteeing some TV deal prices in October will be as good as the discounts on Black Friday. So you can almost count on the fact that it is going to have an early Black Friday promotion the first or second full week of November. But we are banking on the final ad details leaking toward the beginning of the second full week. What to expect from the Best Buy ad? Electronics such as 4K and 8K tvs, laptops, desktop computers, phones, cameras, stereo / home theater systems, kitchen appliances such as smart refrigerators and more.
Sears Black Friday Ad – NOVEMBER 14 (estimated)
If ever there was a need for a retailer to shake things up over a holiday season, it is Sears which is currently in bankruptcy proceedings. They need to really go all out this year, move inventory and prove that their department stores in malls can hit it out of the park during the crucial Christmas shopping season. As such, expect them to release their Thanksgiving Day sales right in the middle of the fray a few weeks ahead of Black Friday.
Bass Pro Shops & Cabelas Black Friday ads – NOVEMBER 14 (estimated)
The advertisements for these major outdoor retailers are usually mailed to the customers on their list and timed to arrive 2-3 weeks before Thanksgiving. You will occasionally see them out much earlier (if a mail carrier happens to deliver the ad early and it then gets scanned and posted online early). Otherwise, expect to see them in the mail to their preferred customers around this date. What to expect from the Cabelas ad? Outdoor and sporting equipment for fishing, hunting, camping, etc.
Microsoft – NOVEMBER 14 (estimated)
Expect Microsoft to join other electronics retailers in launching a pre-Black Friday sale in the beginning of November. However, if it releases the ad too early, people may just delay shopping on all of its products. So expect it to target about two weeks of Thanksgiving Day to leave enough time for people to get excited but still continue to shop before then. What to expect from the Microsoft ad? Tablets, computers and microsoft products like the Xbox One.
Bed Bath & Beyond Black Friday ad – NOVEMBER 15 (estimated)
This home and kitchen retailer has been steadily pushing back the release of its ads over the past few years. It very well might continue that trend again this year (particularly with how late in the shopping season Thanksgiving Day falls. However, this is one retailer which might try to do something different this year and surprise everyone with something special planned. Unlike Amazon, Walmart and Kohls which have well established Black Friday strategies, BBBY could be a big surprise this shopping season as they seek to bring more people into their stores. What to expect from the Bed Bath & Beyond ad? Home goods for the bedroom and bathroom plus kitchen appliances, vacuums and more.
Amazon Black Friday Press Release- NOVEMBER 18 (estimated)
The nation’s leading eCommerce retailer does not typically release a Black Friday ad. Instead, they offer a press release which teases some of the Amazon Black Friday deals. It historically contains the discounts and bundles on a host of the retailers own products as well as some select percentage discounts from other manufacturers. In advance of their marketing teaser, expect to see a continuation of the historical trend of providing daily deals beginning on November 1 and extending into and beyond Thanksgiving week. The Amazon Black Friday ad Press release usually intensifies the deal offerings about two weeks before the major shopping holiday, so expect it in that November 14-18 period. What to expect from the Amazon deals? Extremely competitive Amazon black friday deals on their own products including the Echo, Fire TV stick, Blink XT, Ring Video Doorbell, Fire HD tablet and products from other manufacturers ranging from televisions, cameras, stereos, headphones, gaming laptops, home goods and more.
Gamestop Black Friday Ad – NOVEMBER 19 (estimated)
The rumors about this retailer’s pending bankruptcy have been greatly exaggerated as comparisons were made to Radio Shack this summer. With the plummeting stock price this year though, they will be eager to jumpstart the Christmas shopping season right. Since they are all about video games, we expect they will release a bit later than the other major retailers so that they can gain any advantage possible. Last year they had the best deal on the Nintendo Switch console in our eyes, so look for them to do so again with either the older version or the new Nintendo Switch Lite. What to expect from the Gamestop ad? Video games and consoles.